Forex News: 29.12.2006 The changes at the Forex market are not to be above 50 points
The data of consumer confidence in the USA was 109.2, which was up to analysts’ expectations. Chiicago PMI was 52.4. “The market reacted on this statistics with positive dynamics, which allowed dollar to confirm its position by 50 points. However, the reaction was insignificant as a whole, and no fundamental changes took place. There is no need to expect any events after it”, Artem Enshin, NorthFinance financial analyst says. ”Today the index of consumer confidence in Great Britain is published. During the last period under report, the reading was -7, the analysts expect it to grow by -6. The changes at the Forex market are not to be above 50 points”.
Forex News: 28.12.2006 U.S. consumer confidence rises in December
U.S. consumer confidence rose in December amid an improved job market and more optimism about the economy. The private research group said its consumer confidence index climbed to 109.0 in December from 105.3 in November. Economists were expecting a decline to about 101.9.
Forex News: 28.12.2006 U.S. weekly jobless claims rise to 317,000
The number of U.S. workers filing new applications for state unemployment benefits rose slightly in the latest week while continuing jobless claims climbed to their highest level in almost a year. Initial jobless claims rose by 1,000 in the week ended Dec. 23 to 317,000, the Labor Department said in a report. But continuing claims, or people continuing to collect state unemployment benefits, rose by 16,000, to 2.53 million, in the week ended Dec. 16. It's the highest level since Jan. 28. The four-week average of initial claims fell by 10,250 to 315,750. The four-week average of continuing claims rose to to 2.51 million.
Forex News: 28.12.2006 - What to expect after holidays
Artem Enshin, NorthFinance financial analysts speaks about the Forex market after New Year holidays: “After two-month euro growth, we observe 200-point consolidation 1.3150-1.3350. The weeks before New Year were characterized by recession, big investors left the market and it stood motionless in expectation of events. After the holidays, we may see euro above the level of 1.3300. It is highly possible that during the after-holiday period, when investors come back at the market, EUR/USD pair will renew its growth after monthly correction. Further, we expect slight consolidation of dollar and set at 1.2800. Today the market moves under the influence of inertial powers, but the real movement will follow new portions of macroeconomic results. Oil and dollar will keep their prices steady, thus dollar is not expected to experience its best days.”
Forex News: 25.12.2006 EUR/USD is not to cross 1.3200
MERRY CHRISTMAS !!!“Serious movements are not expected to take place at the Forex market this week. The market is limitedly volatile, Artem Enshin, NorthFinance financial analyst says. ” No news are published on Monday and Tuesday, the Catholic world celebrates Christmas, its major holiday. On Thursday, weekly jobless claims in the USA are published. The index is expected to rise from 315K to 320K. The index of consumer confidence is published the same day. The analysts expect its successive drop to the level 102.0. Let us remind that in November the index of consumer confidence dropped to 102.1 after 105.1 in October. In September the index was 105.9. “On Friday, Gfk consumer confidence in Germany is released. The analysts expect the index’s increase to 9.5 from 9.4 in the preceding month. EUR/USD is not to cross 1.3200».
Forex News: 22.12.2006 Industrial orders were below expectations in the euro area in October
The index of industrial orders in the euro area fell in October by 0.6% at the monthly rate and rose by 12.5%, compared with October 2005, Eurostat, the Statistical Office for the European Communities reported today. The analysts expected industrial orders to rise in October by 0.5% in a month and 10.4% in a year.
The index of industrial orders, reflecting the change of new orders for products of the European manufacturers, dropped a second month. In September, the index of industrial orders in the euro area was -1.4% in a month and +7.3% in a year (revised from -1.3% and +7.6% in a month and year respectively).
The market takes the index of industrial orders into account because it reflects the prospects of economic growth. The index drop will contribute to the reduction of industrial output and, as a result, slowing economic development in the manufacturing sector of the euro area.
Forex News: 22.12.2006 Current account in the euro area was below expectations in October
The index of current account in the euro area was far below expectations, amounting to 0.0bln euro, compared with the surplus of 1.1bln euro in September, the European Central Bank reported today.
September reading was revised from the deficit of 0.3bln euro to the surplus of 1.1bln. The analysts expected 0.8bln euro surplus of current account in October, having considered the initial September reading.
The net joint afflux of direct and portfolio investments was in October 10.4bln euro, compared with the afflux of 15.3bln in the preceding month (revised from 20.7bln euro).
As a rule, the index of current account produces limited effect upon the market and it is better to analyze it in connection of other macroeconomic indicators in the euro area, published today.
Forex News: 22.12.2006 Fine prospect of euro for the next week
“The most interesting news will be published during the American session”, Sergey Popov, NorthFinance financial analyst says, “Today the index of durable goods orders and index of personal income and spending are published. If personal income is down while personal spending is up, as analysts suggest, and PCE price index ex food and energy is above expectations, we may expect interest rate rise at the next FOMC meeting. Following this news, consumer price index in Germany is published. The Michigan sentiment index is to define general direction. Considering this week’s statistics, the index is to drop to the level of 87. This week’s closing of EUR/USD above 1.3260 indicates fine prospect of euro for the next week as well as the continuation of its growth to 1.3450.”
Forex News: 22.12.2006 Dec. Philly Fed index fell to - 4.3
Manufacturing activity contracted in the Philadelphia region in December, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported Thursday.
The Philly Fed index fell to negative 4.3 in December from 5.1 in November. Readings below zero indicate contraction.
Economists expected sentiment to remain relatively weak at 5.3. Indicators for new orders and unfilled orders also fell below zero.
Forex News: 21.12.2006 Leading indicators index increase 0.1% in November
Slow economic growth is likely to continue in the near term, as it was reported that the index of leading economic indicators rose 0.1% in November, the third straight increase.
The increase was exactly as predicted by economists. The index rose 0.1% in October and 0.4% in September.
Four of the 10 leading indicators increased in November: money supply, vendor performance, core capital goods orders and stock prices. Five indicators contracted: jobless claims, building permits, the interest rate spread, the factory workweek, and consumer expectations. Orders for consumer goods held steady.
Over the past six months, the index is up 0.2%. The index is designed to foreshadow turning points in the economy six to nine months ahead.
Forex News: 21.12.2006 GDP revised down to 2% in third quarter
The U.S. economy grew at a 2% real seasonally adjusted annual rate in the third quarter, slightly lower than the 2.2% estimated a month ago. It was the slowest growth since the fourth quarter of 2005, when hurricane damages slowed the economy to 1.8%. The economy grew at a 2.6% pace in the second quarter. As before, the collapse of homebuilding was a large drag on growth, offset by healthy consumer spending and robust capital spending by businesses. Core consumer prices were unrevised in the report, showing a 2.2% annualized gain, still in the Federal Reserve's discomfort zone. Overall inflation in the economy was revised slightly higher on newer data on government purchase prices. Economists were looking for growth in the July-to-September period to remain at 2.2% in the final revision. Economists are predicting 2% annualized growth both in the current quarter and in the first quarter of 2007.
Forex News: 20.12.2006 UK Nov. budget deficit narrowed to 7.7 bln. stg
UK current budget stood at a deficit of 7.7 bln stg in November, compared with a deficit of 8.2 bln stg in the same month last year.
On a cumulative basis, the current budget deficit in the first eight months of the year has improved to 16.1 bln stg from 20.0 bln last year.
Economists forecasted a current budget deficit for the fiscal year of 7.9 bln stg.
Forex News: 20.12.2006 BoE expects inflation pressure weakening
The Bank of England published today the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting held on 6 and 7 December 2006, when all members of the Committee unanimously voted to keep the Bank Rate at its current level 5.0%. All members of the Committee agreed that from the moment of the publication of November Inflation Report, inflation expectations did not change. In addition, it is still early to judge the effects of the latest rate increase by 0.25% to 5.0% at the meeting on November 8. CPI inflation fastened as it was largely expected, though some members of the Committee were looking for slight weakening of inflation pressures. In 2007, inflation pressure is to weaken reflecting reduced energy prices. The Monetary Policy Committee noted in its report that the labor market is stable, while new job vacancies are to grow. Business surveys also indicated that in the forth quarter manufacturing sector was weakening, while services sector was strengthening.
Forex News: 19.12.2006 U.S. housing starts increase 6.7% in November
Construction on new homes raised 6.7% in November after a whopping 14% drop in October. Building permits, meanwhile, fell 3% to a nine-year low, signaling that the housing market remains very weak. Starts rose in November to an annual rate of 1.588 million. Starts are down 25.5% in the past year. Building permits, considered a leading indicator, fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.506 million. Building permits are down 31.3% in the past year. The quantity of starts in November was above the expected 1.54 million, while permits fell of the 1.55 million expected by economists.
Forex News: 19.12.2006 U.S. November PPI rises 2.0%
Producer prices rose much more than expected in November, as the core producer price index rose by the most since July 1980. The November producer price index climbed by 2%, the biggest rise since November 1974, data show. The core PPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 1.3%. Much of the gain in the headline producer price number was in energy prices, which rose by 6.1%. Economists were expecting the PPI to rise by 0.7%. They also forecast a 0.3% rise in the core PPI.
Forex News: 19.12.2006 German IFO business climate index rises in December
Business sentiment in Germany has brightened substantially in December from November, against the analysts forecasts which advanced a flat performance of this indicator. The Ifo indicator has risen to 108.7 points in December from 106.8 in November when the experts expected a reading around 106.8. The current conditions sub-index has increased to 115.3 points from 113.9 in November, and the business expectations index has risen to 102.5 points from 100.2 points in November.
Forex News: 18.12.2006 The analysts expected slower current account rise in the USA
The deficit of current account in the USA in the third quarter rose substantially toward the second quarter. In the second quarter, the indicator, reflecting the balance of payments, was -$218.4bln. In the third quarter, the current account deficit widened to -$225.6bln. Despite the serious growth of the current account deficit toward the preceding quarter, the data was not substantially above analysts’ expectations. The deficit was expected to widen to -$225.0bln in the third quarter. It is important to note, that the data of the second quarter was revised from $218.41bln to $217.13bln. At the moment, the negative data is most likely to serve as a driving force for dollar drop toward other major currencies.
Forex News: 18.12.2006 Euro Zone trade surplus reached 2.4 Billion euro
The trade balance of the Euro Zone posted profits for the second consecutive time, with substantial rises in exports as well as in imports, according to Eurostat. The Eurostat affirmed that the EMU trade surplus reached 2.4 Billion Euro in October. On the year, the trade surplus increased by 0.1 Billion Euro. October record increases from September's 2.1 Billion Euro, which has been upwardly revised from the 2.0 Billion Euro surplus previously broadcasted. October's reading was unexpected, analysts advanced a 1.7Billion surplus. Total imports rose to 125.1 billion from 118.3 billion in September, while total exports from the Euro Zone increased from 120.5 billion in September to 127.6 billion in October
Forex News: 15.12.2006 The consumer price index in the USA in November is below expectations
The consumer price index (CPI) in the USA did not change in November toward the preceding month and rose by 2.0% at the annual rate, which indicates that inflation slows down a second month. In October, the consumer price index was -0.5%. Core inflation (CPI excluding food and energy) also did not change in November and was 2.6% at the annual rate. According to forecasts, the consumer price index was to grow by 0.2% in a month and 2.2% in a year. Core inflation was to increase by 0.2% and 2.7%, in a month and year respectively.
Forex News: 15.12.2006 EUR/USD disruption of 1.3130 indicates the continuation of correction
“After the publication of US data yesterday, dollar gained slight support: the indicator of business activity was above expectations, while jobless claims slightly fell. However, it did not fasten up the movement at the Forex market”, Georgiy Fedotov, NorthFinance financial analyst says. The index of industrial production in Europe in October is published today. In the preceding month, the index was -0.1%, but the analysts expect it to increase by 0.5%. The index of industrial production is one of major indicators, reflecting the condition of national economy. The substantial growth from minus level of the preceding month may consolidate euro position toward other currencies. The consumer price index in the USA is also published today. The analysts expect substantial increase, from -0.5% to 0.2%. The index of industrial production in the USA in November may fall from 0.2% to 0.1%, while the index of capacity unitization may add 0.1% to 82.0% of the preceding reading. EUR/USD disruption of 1.3130 will indicate the continuation of correction, while the disruption of 33 will say of the ascending trend.”
Forex News: 14.12.2006 U.S. weekly initial jobless claims fall to 304,000
The number of Americans filing for first-time state unemployment benefits fell to its lowest level since mid-October, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Initial jobless claims decreased by 20,000 to 304,000 in the week ending Dec. 9. Meanwhile, the four-week moving average of new claims fell by 1,500 to 327,250, according to the data. The number of workers continuing to claim jobless benefits dropped off by 33,000 in the week ending Dec. 2, to 2.47 million. It's the lowest since Nov. 18.
Forex News: 14.12.2006 Retail sales in the UK are above expectations
Though the analysts expected retail sales in November to drop by -0.1% in a month, the index rose unexpectedly a second month and was +0.3% in a month and +3.2% in a year.In October, the index of retail sales was 1.0% in a month (revised from 0.9%) and +3.9% in a year, the maximum since November 2005, reflecting decreasing prices for goods and petrol and retail sales growth in all sectors, except food. The index of retail sales is subject to seasonal fluctuations and in November, it reflected higher consumer demand connected with Christmas, as well as unemployment decline.
Forex News: 14.12.2006 Yen does not want to consolidate its position
“The index of retail sales was above expectations, which supported dollar, but Eurodollar was not able to get over the kea level of 1.3200. This indicates a great possibility of ascending trend”, Georgiy Fedotov, NorthFinance financial analyst says. ”Today, the great amount of news is released. The retail sales in Great Britain in November are published at 12.30a.m. (Moscow time). The analysts expect serious drop of the index, from 0.9% to -0.1%. Jobless claims in the USA are published at 4.30p.m (Moscow time). The index is to fall slightly, from 324K to 321K. At night (Moscow time), significant Japan’s data is published: Tertiary activity index in October and Tankan. At the moment yen does not want to consolidate its position toward dollar, which is connected with great probability of unchanged interest rates until the end of the year.”
Forex News: 12.12.2006 U.S. trade gap narrows in October
The U.S. trade deficit narrowed by 8.4% in October to $58.9 billion. The trade gap is at its lowest level since August 2005. The narrowing of the deficit was the largest since December 2001. The trade deficit was well below the forecast of economists of a deficit of $63.1 billion. Exports rose to a new record in October, while imports fell by the largest amount in almost five years. Despite the improvement, the U.S. trade deficit with China widened to a record $24.4 billion in October compared with $23.0 billion in September.
Forex News: 12.12.2006 German Dec. ZEW economic sentiment index increased to -19.0
Business expectations have improved sharply in Germany as a part of a general economic recovery, as the latest report from the Center of Economic Research shows. The economic expectations index increased to -19.0 in December after having fallen for the tenth consecutive time to -28.5, its lowest level since 1993. December level marks the highest record since last August. The level reflects a low business activity, taking on account that the historical average is 33.7
Forex News: 12.12.2006 Statistic data are important today
"As it has been said earlier, the premises for finishing of the correction and continuation of a rising trend are forming at the present time. The support levels are clear now", - says NorthFinance financial analyst Georgiy Fedotov. The ex-chairman of U.S. FED Alan Grispen has declared that there are all reason for a long falling of dollar rate. Forex market reacted on this statement by small decreasing of american currency. The publishing of important statistic data is expected today. The first will be announceв Germany ZEW economic expectations index in December. This index reflects the confidence of the german companies in the present economic situation for nearest six months. In November the index was -28.5 points, the analysts forecast increasing of confidence to -24.8. At 13.00 will be published Eurozone current account balance in the third quarter and at 16.30 the output U.S. international trade balance output is expected. The growth of the indicator to -63.0 bln. is forecasted in October compared with -64.3 bln. in the previous month. At 22.00 in the evening will be published Nov. U.S. federal budget. Analysts forecast a significant raise of the budget deficit to -73.7 bln. In October the deficit of the budget formed -49.3 bln. At the end will be declared the decision of U.S. FOMC meeting concerning interest rate. Much more likely, the base rate will remain on its former level, but it is important to know in which way the FED members will characterize the economy of the country".
Forex News: 12.12.2006 U.S. October wholesales inventories up 0.8 pct
Inventories at US wholesalers rose at a faster-than-expected pace in October as sales posted the first pair of consecutive declines. Inventories at US wholesalers rose 0.8 pct in October, compared with a 0.6 pct expected rise. Sales fell 0.5 pct in October, the second decline in a raw. The inventory-to-sales ratio rose slightly to 1.20 from 1.18 in the prior month. Durable goods sales fell 0.4 pct, led by a 3.3 pct decline in machinery sales. The decline was moderated by a 2.5 pct gain in auto sales. Inventories of durable goods rose 0.7.
Forex News: The deficit of trade in goods fell in October in the UK
Forex NewsThe deficit of trade in goods fell in October in the UK to 6.3bln stg from 6.7bln stg in September, the National Office of Statistics reported today. The index was expected to fall slightly, to 6.6bln stg.
It is important to note that exports fell in October by 0.1bln stg, which reflects the slowing of manufacturing activity in the country. Imports fell by 0.5bln stg.
The deficit of non-EU trade rose by 3.9bln stg in October, from 3.8bln stg in the preceding month.
Forex News: In prospect, pound sterling aim is 2.0000
Forex News"Now we are observing the correction and expecting the continuation of ascending movement of the pair EUR/USD. The first level is 1.3364 (last "high" of euro), and the next levels are "highs" of December, 2004, - George Fedotov, NorthFinance financial analyst comments. “Almost the same picture is observed on the British pound; with the difference that pound has covered maximums of 2004 long ago. In perspective, pound sterling aim is 2.0000. The index of nonfarm payrolls in the USA was better than its forecasts (132К), but Michigan sentiment was below expectations (90.2). And although, the US minister for finance emphasized in his statement that the economy of country developed steadily, it did not provide serious support to dollar. Today it is important to pay attention to the balance of trade in Great Britain (Trade in goods). In the preceding period under report, the reading was -6.56, an increase to -6.50 is expected. The index of wholesale inventories in the USA is also published today. The reduction to 0.6% from 0.8% is expected. “
Forex News: U.S. nonfarm payrolls rise 132,000 in November
Forex NewsNonfarm payrolls increased by132,000 in November, easing worries that the economy is weakening. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.5% from 4.4% in October, which was a five-year low.The gain in payrolls was higher than expected. Economists were forecasting an average gain of 112,000 in November. Payrolls growth in October and September was revised higher by a net 42,000 jobs. Average hourly earnings increased 3 cents, or 0.2%, to $16.94 in November. Wage earnings are up 4.1% in the past year. The average workweek was steady at 33.9 hours. Total hours worked in the economy increased 0.1%.
Forex News: Speculatively tuned investors will set the tone
Forex News“The week was characterised with absolute silence at the Forex market”, Artem Enshin, NorthFinance financial analyst says. “Maximum fluctuation was 100 points in the corridor of 1.3250-1.3350. After rash rally, the investors have taken the pause and started waiting for one of the most important economic indicators in the USA - nonfarm payrolls. Yesterday the interest rates in England and in the euro area were announced. Though the Bank of England maintained its rate at the same level and the European Central Bank increased its rate by 0/25%, the events were expected at the market. The market took into account these changes and dynamics was not observed. As for nonfarm payrolls, which are published today, the index is expected to rise to 115K. During three months, the reaction for this indicator was insignificant, but we expect strong reaction because the market was too volatile and traded-out. We may expect the level of 1.3500 for EUR/USD before the end of the year, because during the pre-New Year period many institutional investors leave the Forex market or slow down their activity, while speculatively tuned investors set the tone. As usual, during the period the market is characterised as “thin””.
Forex News: U.S. nonfarm payrolls rise 132,000 in November
Forex NewsNonfarm payrolls increased by132,000 in November, easing worries that the economy is weakening.
The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.5% from 4.4% in October, which was a five-year low.The gain in payrolls was higher than expected. Economists were forecasting an average gain of 112,000 in November.
Payrolls growth in October and September was revised higher by a net 42,000 jobs.
Average hourly earnings increased 3 cents, or 0.2%, to $16.94 in November. Wage earnings are up 4.1% in the past year.
The average workweek was steady at 33.9 hours. Total hours worked in the economy increased 0.1%.
Forex News: Speculatively tuned investors will set the tone
Forex News“The week was characterised with absolute silence at the Forex market”, Artem Enshin, NorthFinance financial analyst says. “Maximum fluctuation was 100 points in the corridor of 1.3250-1.3350. After rash rally, the investors have taken the pause and started waiting for one of the most important economic indicators in the USA - nonfarm payrolls. Yesterday the interest rates in England and in the euro area were announced. Though the Bank of England maintained its rate at the same level and the European Central Bank increased its rate by 0/25%, the events were expected at the market. The market took into account these changes and dynamics was not observed. As for nonfarm payrolls, which are published today, the index is expected to rise to 115K. During three months, the reaction for this indicator was insignificant, but we expect strong reaction because the market was too volatile and traded-out. We may expect the level of 1.3500 for EUR/USD before the end of the year, because during the pre-New Year period many institutional investors leave the Forex market or slow down their activity, while speculatively tuned investors set the tone. As usual, during the period the market is characterised as “thin””.
Forex News: ECB lifts key rate to 3,5%
Forex News
The European Central Bank on Thursday lifted its base rate by a quarter point as the European economy continues to accelerate. The bank's concerned there's too much money around for companies and consumers to spend. The european central bankers, who unlike their Federal Reserve counterparts are keen watchers of money supply, are acting as the money supply is rising at an 8.5% rate. The ECB, which sets rates for countries that use the euro as their currency, favors growth closer to 4.5%. With money supply on the rise, the ECB is acting even as annualized inflation at 1.8% is below its target of near 2%. The move was widely anticipated and represents the sixth interest-rate hike in a year. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said rates remain accommodative and the central bank will monitor risk very closely. Trichet has not given any concrete signals for the timing of the next rate hike, speaking in the overall framework of a cycle of monetary-policy tightening.
Forex News: U.S. weekly jobless claims fell by 34,000
Forex NewsThe number of new filings for state unemployment benefits declined in the latest week, reversing a large increase in the previous week, the Labour Department said Thursday. Initial jobless claims fell by 34,000 to 324,000 in the week ended Dec. 2. The drop was in line with economists forecasts. Claims rose a revised 35,000 to 358,000 in the previous week. This was the highest level of claims in over a year. The four-week average of initial claims, which smoothes out weekly noise, rose 3,500 to 328,750. This is the highest level since May. The number of people collecting state unemployment benefits over the past four weeks rose by 57,000 to 2.52 million in the week ended Nov. 25.
Forex News: German Oct. manufacturing orders drop 1.1 pct
Forex NewsManufacturing orders have decreased in October in Germany, to contradict the experts’ forecasts of a 0.9% increase. On the year, however, manufacturing orders have increased 10.0%.
Foreign orders have decreased in October by 2.6% while domestic orders increased 0.6%. September manufacturing orders have been revised down to -3.0% from the initial -2.5% reading.
Forex News: Industrial production in UK below expectations
Forex NewsThe index of industrial production in Great Britain, one of the indicators of economic growth in the country, was far below expectations in October. The reading was -0.8% in a month and +0.6% in a year, compared with +0.2% and 0.5% in September, in a month and year respectively. It was largely expected that the index of industrial production, which includes manufacturing output as well as outputs in mining and quarrying sector and municipal economy, would amount in October to +0.1% in a month and +0.6% in a year. The index of manufacturing output was in October -0.4% in a month and +2.5% in year, compared with the preceding reading, 0.0% and 2.0%, in a month and year respectively. According to forecasts, the index was to be in October +0.2% in a month and +3.0% in a year.
Forex News: U.S. Nov. ISM services index rises to 58.9
Forex NewsNon manufacturing sectors of the U.S. economy expanded at a faster pace during November, the Institute for Supply Management reported Tuesday. The ISM non manufacturing index rose to 58.9% from 57.1% in October. This is the highest level since May. The increase surprised forecasts. Economists were looking the index to dip to 55.8%. The headline index is not a weighted average of the survey's other key components. New orders rose to 57.1% from 56.5%. The employment index rose to 51.6% from 51.0%.
Forex News: Bank of Canada leaves rates unchanged at 4.25%
Forex NewsThe Bank of Canada on Tuesday left its benchmark overnight rate unchanged at 4.25%, as widely expected, and said that inflation has evolved “broadly in line” with the Bank's expectations.
The Bank reiterated that “the current level of the target for the overnight rate is judged at this time to be consistent with achieving the inflation target over the medium term”.
Bank of Canada's commentary suggests that "the main top-down risk at the present time is slowed economic growth of U.S. economy".
Forex News: Retail sales in the euro area rose by 0.3% in October
Forex NewsThe index of retail sales in the euro area was slightly below expectations in October - +0.3% in a month and +1.1% in a year, Eurostat, the Statistical Office of the European Communities reported today. In September the index of retail sales in the euro area was -0.6% in a month and 1.4% in a year. Retail sales were expected to rise by 0.4% in a month and 1.5% in a year in October. The retail sales of food, drinks and tobacco did not change in a month and fell by 0.8% in a year. The index of retail sales in non-food sector rose by 0.4% in a month and 2.2% in a year. Although the reading was slightly below expectations, retail sales in the euro area rose substantially, compared with the preceding month, which, obviously, help euro consolidate its positions toward other currencies.
Forex News: Eurozone producer prices index remained unchanged in October
Forex NewsManufacturers prices in Eurozone have remained unchanged from September to October, helped by the third consecutive decline in energy prices, says Eurostat.
In the last twelve months, producer prices increased by 4.0%. October’s data came up slightly better than expected, since analysts expected a 0.1% monthly rise and 4.0% on a year basis.
Prices of energy have fallen 0.5% from September, and 5.3% since October 2005. Nevertheless seems very unlikely that this moderation of prices will suppose an obstacle for the ECB to raise interest rates to 3.5% in their next meeting on Thursday.
Forex News: The prospect of EUR/USD pair is 1.3500 for a week
Forex NewsBy the present moment euro keeps the positions which were conquered the last month. The prospect of the week concludes in a 1.3500 mark of dollar for euro with the subsequent purpose to overcome this level on the mark of 1.3700, - comments Artem Enshin, NorthFinance financial analyst. I suppose the correction up to the mark of 1.3200, but I am considering, that in the nearest future it must not occur. There are several significant macroeconomic indicators will be published this week: Today is expected Oct. Eurozone PPI index. Last month index has dropped 0.5 %. Reduction of manufacturers prices in September is caused, first of all, by falling of the energy prices for 2,5% at once, says agency Eurostat. The increasing of prices for 0.2% is planned this month. Tomorrow will be published Oct. Eurozone retail sales index. Analysts are in expectation of a substantial growth of this parameter from -0.6 % up to +0.4 %. The level of interest rate will be considered in Canada. Important news will appear on Wednesday. At first, we will be able to learn about industrial production in the UK. Analysts forecast the factor to stay on its constant level. Germany manufacturing orders also can cause the interest. The increase of the index from -2.5 % up to 1.0% is expected. Furthermore the share of attention will be received with a news about the level of interest rate in New Zealand. Participants of market Forex will be excited with int consideration of interest rate in UK and Eurozone. I think, that rates will remain constant. Traditionally, on this day will be published U.S. jobless claims. Economists predict the drop of the index in compare with the last week for 37K to 320К. Germany trade balance will known on Friday. But basic events of Friday will begin during the American session, when will be published Nov. nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate. These factors can present surprises in conditions of a strict volatility of the market. I think, on the market will be a significant change of a dollar exchange rate after the output of these data, - says Artem Enshin, NorthFinance analyst.
Forex News: The Forex market regains all movements, missed this year
“At the moment, the nearest figures, which will put up serious resistance to the market, are psychologically important rates: the rate of GDP/USD is 2 dollars for pound sterling (perhaps, we will see the efforts of passing through this level this month). GBP/JPI still reveals strong trend, which has been in progress through the year out. The nearest rate is 230 yen for a pound sterling ”, Sergey Popov, NorthFinance analyst says. “In general, the market is against American dollar. Obviously, we will see new historic maximums and minimums in all major pairs against dollar this year. We do not flatly recommend opening positions for dollar purchase for two months. The market is characterized by high volatility and regains all movements, missed during the year. The opinion of current dollar strength is absent from the market. The majority of participants consider that all major pairs’ trend is continuing. The turning-point of the trend is most likely to take place in the beginning of April. In two-month period, the market will move in stable speculative direction. The majority of rollbacks will not characterise the change of participants’ sentiment, but reveal the consolidation of income. A plenty of return prices for psychological levels of stop-orders and the movement in absence of any statistical data is possible. The information on labor market in the USA, released next week, will be of great interest. We recommend to refrain from trading during the publications’ hours, because the market’s volatility will be extremely high, and the market is likely to move chaotically, especially in first minutes after publication”, Sergey Popov, NorthFinance financial analyst considers. “The range of price change after news’ releases can be 200 or more points for all major currencies. Today the publication of CIPS in Great Britain is the most interesting event. The analysts expect the index to rise to 54.0 from 53.7. ISM, reflecting manufacturing activity in the USA, is also to rise by 0.8% in November and amount to 52.0”.
Forex News: USD Fate Rests with ISM
Forex NewsAt 7:00 AM Canada November Net Change in Employment (exp 12.0k, prev 50.5k) Canada November Unemployment Rate (exp 6.2%, prev 6.2%) At 10:00 AM US November ISM Manufacturing Index (exp 52.0, prev 51.2) US October Construction Spending (exp -0.3%, prev -0.3%)Economic data remains the key point of focus for currency traders with the headline report due out later today at 10:00 AM. The November ISM manufacturing index is forecasted to edge up slightly to 52.0, compared with 51.2 from a month earlier. However, if yesterday’s reaction to the Chicago PMI report can be used as a barometer to sharply disappointing US data then any reading beneath the key 50-level -- which distinguishes between expansion and contraction, will trigger a renewed bout of aggressive dollar selling to fresh lows. On the flipside of that coin though, an upbeat ISM manufacturing report would offset the contraction in yesterday’s Chicago PMI and potentially prompt a flurry of profit-taking ahead of the weekend, in effect initiating a corrective bounce in the dollar.Loonie traders will also focus on Canada’s jobs report due out at 7:00 AM. The Canadian dollar has been subjected to weakness recently given market perception that Canada’s economy will not be immune to further deterioration in US economic fundamentals. November net change in employment is seen at 12.0k, but lower compared with October’s growth of 50.5k. The unemployment rate for November is seen unchanged at 6.2%.
