Tuesday, November 28, 2006

Forex News: USD Soft Ahead of Data, Bernanke

Forex News

At 8:30 AM US October Durable Goods Orders (exp -5.0%, prev 8.3%) US October ex-transports Durable Goods Orders (exp 0.2%, prev 0.5%) At 10:00 AM US October Existing Home Sales (exp 6.15 million units, prev 6.18 million units) US November Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence (exp 106.0, prev 105.4) At 12:30 PM Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks on Economic Outlook At 4:30 PM Fed’s Moskow Speaks At 6:50 PM Japan October Industrial Production m/m (exp -0.4%, prev -0.7%)

Traders were content in testing the extent of the market’s bearishness on the dollar, with the currency thus far unable to recoup any of its steep holiday losses. Selling resumed in early European trade as the sterling revisited its 23-month highs around 1.9460 and the euro remained propped near 1.3160. At this stage, we continue to exercise caution in chasing a move lower in the dollar as the majors have reached overbought levels and would look to sell after a corrective bounce higher has taken place. The overall outlook for the dollar, however, suggests further declines to come as a result of slowing economic growth and the outlook for global interest rate differentials.

Economic data from the US will continue to be closely scrutinized for clues on whether the economy is headed for a soft landing. The reports slated for release later in the session consist of October durable goods, existing home sales and the Conference Board’s consumer confidence survey for November. Although typically a more volatile report, durable goods orders for October does not bode well for proponents of a soft landing, which is forecasted to drop by 5.0% versus an 8.3% gain a month earlier. The ex-transportations durable goods are forecasted at a less pronounced decline from the previous month at 0.2% versus 0.5% from September.


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