Wednesday, November 29, 2006

Forex News: USD Selling Finds Reprieve, Eyes on Data

At 8:30 AM US Q3 GDP annualized (exp 1.8%, prev 1.6%) Q3 core PCE (exp 2.3%, prev 2.3%) Q3 GDP Price Index (exp 1.8%, prev 1.8%) Canada Q3 Current Account Balance (exp C$3.7 bln, prev C$4.2bln) Canada October Raw Materials Product Price m/m (exp -0.3%, prev -1.6%) At 10:00 AM US October New Home Sales (exp 1,050k, prev 1,075k) At 2:00 PM Fed’s Beige Book

The dollar managed to find some support against the majors in early Wednesday trading following over five consecutive sessions of selling. The currency regained slight composure in the London open amid rumors of hedge fund buying, with the euro backing away from fresh 20-month highs just shy of 1.3220 to a session low at 1.3165 in which USD selling interest emerged. Although the overall outlook is bleak for the dollar, given the overextended nature of recent moves in the major currency pairs the risk for a corrective bounce remains. Thus, we maintain our bearish stance on the currency but would be wary of chasing this latest move, instead opting to wait for a retracement to initiate new short positions.

US economic data will again be the key driver of FX for today’s trading session, which will include Q3 GDP, core PCE, price index, October new home sales and the Fed’s Beige Book report. The key points of focus will be GDP and new home sales, slated for release at 8:30 AM and 10:00 AM, respectively.


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