Tuesday, January 30, 2007

Forex News: 30.01.2007 NorthFinance: Current oil prices can result again in the Middle East conflict

“FOMC will keep its interest rate unchanged, though the opinions on its rise are controversial”, Sergey Popov, NorthFinance financial analyst says.

“First, the economic statistics in the preceding two months reflects seasonal changes. Second, FOMC, taking the pause in interest rate’ rise, provides support to dollar, keeping it resold. This will positively influence the budget deficit and trade balance.

If we pay attention to the rise of trade balance between EU and China, the further increase of euro above the level of 1.31 is extremely unwanted for the economy of the european countries. It is possible to speak about ECB interest rate’s rise, despite rather conservative economic politics of Jean-Claude Trichet.

The consumer credit in Great Britain is the most interesting news today. The index is most likely to be in the range of expectations. This will confirm the expediency of interest rate’s increase at the last meeting of BoE.

As for the US consumer credit, it is expected to drop, in connection with public discontent toward the international politics of the USA. The critic is aimed at the federal party, precisely, at its head George Bush.

The extremely warm winter in the northern hemisphere results in oil market stagnation, durable stay of prices in the range of $50-60/a barrel strongly slows down the economic growth of countries, dependable on oil, especially of extensively developing Iran. Such oil prices will add to uncertainty in the Middle East and may draw to the conflict in the region for the rise of price of black gold”, NorthFinance analyst considers.


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